Linking Plant Traits to Fire Potential Mapping: A Feasibility Study in Australian Ecosystems

Abstract

Given the increasing frequency, severity, and socioecological impacts of wildfires, there is an urgent need for robust frameworks to better characterize fire behavior and flammability patterns across ecosystems to support early warning, mitigation, and management strategies. However, flammability remains difficult to quantify and scale, as it involves multiple interacting components that are typically measured at the bench scale. This study aimed to establish empirical links between spectral information, plant traits, and flammability metrics, and to scale these relationships to satellite imagery to translate these metrics into a spatial context. We combined laboratory spectroscopy, plant trait measurements including leaf mass per area, carbon, and cellulose, and combustion experiments using a simple and reproducible burning device. In total, 84 samples were collected and analysed, allowing us to characterise how spectral signatures relate to vegetation traits and fire behaviour. Spectral indices were developed to estimate plant traits, which were subsequently used as predictors in flammability models. These models were then transferred to Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) hyperspectral imagery to derive spatial estimates across eucalypt forests and grasslands of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Spectral information distinguished fuel types and captured variability of the plant traits, while these traits showed associations with combustion behaviour. Based on these links, the best-performing model predicted the rate of temperature increase, a combustibility metric, in eucalypt forests (R2 = 0.70; Root Mean Square Error = 32.48 °C/s). In contrast, grassland models showed limited predictive performance, likely due to weaker relationships between plant traits and flammability metrics. Overall, this study demonstrates a practical and scalable approach for deriving flammability maps from hyperspectral and in situ data, highlighting the potential of plant-trait-based remote sensing. The resulting maps should not be interpreted as standalone fire risk products, but rather as a characterization of the structural and biochemical drivers of flammability. The main constraint of this work is the limited sample size. Future research should expand spatial and temporal coverage to better capture vegetation variability and enable the inclusion of independent validation datasets. Exploring alternative combustion protocols and testing more advanced spectral modelling approaches for trait estimation would provide additional insights.

Code and data availability

The paper's supplementary materials (hosted publicly by MDPI) contain the paper-specific plant phenotype measurements: sampled species lists, fractional cover, and measured vegetation traits across dates and plots, plus combustion replicate variability and trait–flammability relationship data. The raw underlying data,谱